Tanzania , a country synonymous with peace, religious intergration and an emerging east african industrial hub has the coup shadow hanging over the political and security establishment under the presidency of President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, recent events unfolding in Tanzania indicate a chapter of political shifts that have the potential to unravel a unified political group between the opposition and disgruntled party members who have accused the incumbent of dictatorial tendencies and tribalism.
Recent developments that have seen Tanzania’s vice-president Emmanuel Nchimbi expelled from Tanzania’s ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party for indiscipline following his decision earlier this week to resign as the country’s vice-president after 10 months in the job has ignited a volcanic fissure awaiting eruption.
The 54-year-old is said to have made some controversial remarks in recent weeks including urging Tanzanians to “fight for a new constitution” – pointing to a possible fallout with President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Energy Minister Deogratius Ndejembi, 43, has been nominated as his replacement and his name will now be presented to parliament for approval. The decisions were taken at an extraordinary meeting of the CCM, chaired by President Samia.
A source within Tanzania stated that the former vice-president Emmanuel John Nchimbi’s political career and ascension has not seized simply because he resigned, but rather the resignation and expulsion from the ruling party in totality is the beginning of Tanzania’s road to democracy and collective freedoms with talks about the political divide being the catalyst and key element in a looming coup within the east african enclave.
As speculation grows on the future of Tanzania’s political stability, there apears to be no end in sight for the new era of coups. Five years after a pattern of popcorn coups emerged, the resurgence of coups on the continent has continued well into the end of 2025 with 2026 indicating the possible tally of a coup in Tanzania. Following the coup in Madagascar in October, West Africa experienced, in November and December respectively, a coup in Guinea-Bissau orchestrated by the incumbent to prevent electoral defeat and an attempted coup in Benin. Since 2020, there have been eleven instances of coups in nine African states.
As military seizure of power surges in the face of major democratic backsliding on the continent, this rule is being hollowed out in practice, albeit, as discussed previously, without AU member states being regarded as having intended to dispense with the rule in Article 25(4) of ACDEG. Indeed, one of the paradoxical developments of AU’s policy response to the recent upsurge in coups is the fact that despite its declared commitment to zero tolerance to unconstitutional changes of government, in practice it has engaged not only in selective application of its policy but also created, as argued in an Ideas Indaba article, ‘a tendency of laxity in enforcing ACDEG’s Article 25(4) norm.’The litmus test becomes the status of events unfolding in Tanzania.
