A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.
Leading the week
Despite increasing calls for a delay, the first public hearings in the inquiry into nurse Lucy Letby are due to get underway on Tuesday (September 10). The Thirlwall Inquiry’s aim is to establish just how Letby was able to murder seven babies and attempt to kill six more during her time at the Countess of Chester hospital between June 2015 and June 2016. Former Health Secretary Steve Barclay ordered the inquiry in August last year following Letby’s trial, which proved to be one of the longest legal cases in British history. But a growing movement led by Conservative MP David Davis has called for the inquiry to be postponed amid questions about the safety of Letby’s conviction and the validity of some of the evidence used in her trial. Victims’ families have argued that a decision not to livestream the inquiry hearings will help to fuel the ‘grossly offensive’ conspiracy theories around Letby’s conviction, but Lady Justice Thirlwall ruled in May that doing so would risk breaching court orders protecting the identity of those involved, including all of the babies. The Court of Appeal refused Letby’s application to challenge her conviction in April.
Amid concerns that ‘risky offenders’ will be among those back on Britain’s streets as the government looks to tackle overcrowded prisons, the first inmates are freed on Tuesday (September 10) under the controversial Early Release Scheme. Prisoners serving custodial sentences of less than four years will be eligible for release after 40% of their terms, down from 50%, in a bid to free up space after the prison population reached a record high in August. Despite implementing their own early release measures earlier this year, Conservative MPs have accused Labour of being soft on crime and letting dangerous criminals out on to the street. While Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood initially claimed the scheme would not include prisoners serving time for serious offences such as rape, the government later conceded some serious offenders would be eligible if they’ve completed a full sentence for a serious crime but are serving a consecutive sentence for a lesser one. With the Chief Inspector of Prisons’ annual report due on the same day as the first releases, Labour will be under pressure to come up with new ways to solve the prison crisis.
The post-election row over the state of the public finances flared up again as soon as MPs returned from summer recess, and two of the most contentious issues in the debate over government spending will be at the forefront of the agenda next week. Labour market statistics published first thing on Tuesday (September 10) will contain earnings data which, according to the BBC, are set to be used to calculate next year’s state pension. With wages forecast to overtake inflation and the government committed to using the triple lock in its calculations, the result could be a significant increase in pension payments at a time when the Treasury is trying to find ways to reduce the welfare burden.
MPs will then get a chance to voice their opposition to one of the government’s most controversial proposals later the same day, when a vote is due on means-testing winter fuel payments. Labour MPs are among those to have criticised the proposal to limit the cold-weather payments, and the vote could end up being a real test of Keir Starmer’s authority (not to mention Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans) with opposition parties likely to be keen to strike a blow in the lead up to the Budget. The publication of the OBR’s latest report on fiscal sustainability on Thursday (September 12), a day after the release of monthly GDP figures on Wednesday (September 11), will also give an indication of just how tough the Chancellor will have to be on October 30.
Looking abroad
Despite a back and forth over the issue of muted mics, on Tuesday (September 10) Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will meet in Philadelphia for their first and possibly only debate ahead of November’s presidential election, viewed as a potentially key moment in the tight race between the two candidates. Democrats have been energised following Biden’s decision to end his candidacy, notably following a calamitous performance during his own debate with Trump back in June, and polling in battleground states now indicates the White House race is very much back in play.
The Trump campaign, meanwhile, has struggled to land significant blows against Harris, and in recent days has had to fend off criticism over the Arlington Cemetery incident. But Trump comes into Tuesday’s debate with the advantage of experience, having already taken part in six presidential debates while this will be Harris’ first. Given the high stakes, it’s perhaps unsurprising that analysts are predicting the debate could set a new record for viewing figures, topping the 84 million who tuned into Trump’s first debate with Hillary Clinton in September 2016.
Mass protests and a general strike were held in Israel this week following the news that the bodies of six hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 and apparently killed as IDF forces neared their location had been recovered. That momentum continues with the weekly rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday as family members urge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure an agreement that would see the remaining hostages released. But despite the domestic and international pressure, Netanyahu’s response has been typically defiant, and he remains adamant that continued occupation of the Philadelphi corridor – viewed as a red line for Hamas – is essential and non-negotiable. The situation in Gaza and recent IDF operations in the West Bank, meanwhile, are set to dominate a gathering of Arab League foreign ministers taking place in Cairo on Tuesday (September 10).
Extraordinarily, a World Health Organization campaign to vaccinate some 640,000 Gazan children against polio has been underway amid the fighting, facilitated by ‘area-specific humanitarian pauses’. Assuming all goes to plan, the third and final phase of the initial round of vaccinations is scheduled to take place in northern Gaza from Monday to Wednesday (September 9-11). A second dose of the vaccine will need to be administered in four weeks’ time.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi will have plenty to discuss when he briefs the UN nuclear watchdog’s Board of Governors on Monday (September 9), after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv and paying his fifth visit to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant earlier this week. Grossi was also in Russia last month to visit the Kursk nuclear power plant, the latest potential nuclear catastrophe stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s recent partial occupation of the region. He’ll likely face questions on both visits when he holds a press conference in Vienna later on Monday, as well as on a possible trip to Iran, where new President Masoud Pezeshkian is reportedly open to fresh engagement with the IAEA over Iran’s nuclear program.
Also look out for…
September 9
- Module 3 hearings begin in the UK Covid-19 Inquiry
- Main programme gets underway at Trades Union Congress
- Judgement in Andrew and Tristan Tate tax evasion case
- Second ballot in the Conservative Party leadership contest
- DPP speaks at Police Superintendents’ Association conference
- New Apple iPhone launched
- Trial begins in DOJ case against Google over allegedly monopolising digital ads
- Polaris Dawn scheduled to launch
September 10
- Jeffrey Donaldson goes on trial accused of sexual offences
- Third ballot in the Conservative Party leadership contest
- England face Finland in the Nations League
- HMICFRS report on activism and impartiality in policing
- Tim Davie at Lords committee session on the future of the BBC
- London Assembly meeting on Grenfell
- Interim report due from Kolkata rape case task force
- ECJ judgment in Alphabet’s challenge to EU fines over Google Shopping
- Parliamentary elections in Jordan
September 11
- Monthly GDP figures
- PMQs and Commons debate on building safety and resilience
- Arbitration Bill and motions on winter fuel payment regulations in the House of Lords
- Fourth ballot in the Conservative Party leadership contest
- Elections of select committee chairs
- Sentencing for 12-year-old boy who took part in Manchester riots
- Footballer Enzo Fernandez sentenced for driving offence
- Pope Francis begins Singapore visit
September 12
- Defra questions in the House of Commons
- NHS key services and waiting time data
- Harvey Weinstein in court in New York
- London Fashion Week begins
September 13
- Funeral for Sven-Goran Eriksson
- NATO Chiefs of Defence meeting
- Sentencing for Met officer who stole money from corpse
- Pope Francis wraps up Asia tour
- Ivan Toney to make Al-Ahli debut in Saudi Arabia
- England v Australia 2nd T20I
September 14
- Liberal Democrats Autumn Conference
- New Strictly Come Dancing series starts
- BBC Last Night of the Proms
September 15
- BMA referendum on junior doctor pay offer closes
- Ed Davey Q&A at Lib Dems conference
- Primetime Emmy Awards
- Formula One: Azerbaijan Grand Prix
- Opening ceremony in Russia’s friendship games
- England v Australia 3rd T20I
- Prince Harry turns 40
Statistics, reports and results:
September 9
- WTO World Trade report
- Mario Draghi report on the future of EU competitiveness
- Cluster Munition Monitor 2024
- PwC Good Growth for Cities Index
- IHS Markit/REC report on jobs
- China consumer price index
- Japan Q2 GDP
September 10
- OECD Education at a Glance
- Lords economic affairs committee report on national debt
- Universal Credit stats
- Quarterly figures on suspected drug deaths in Scotland
- Alcohol specific deaths in Scotland (2023)
- OPEC monthly oil markets report
- UNCTAD report on the Palestinian economy
- Results from: Associated British Foods, Serica
September 11
- Social Mobility Commission’s State of the Nation report
- UK indices of production and services
- Construction industry output
- UK overseas trade
- OECD harmonised unemployment rates
- US consumer price index
- Results from: Inditex, WHSmith
September 12
- Annual figures on MPs’ expenses
- Deaths associated with hospitalisation in England
- Quarterly figures on use of counter-terrorism legislation
- Quarterly tribunals and gender recognition statistics
- Quarterly rail performance figures
- Monthly NOAA Global Climate report
- IEA monthly oil market report
- G20 GDP growth data
September 13
- Bank of England/Ipsos inflation attitudes survey
- Russia Q2 GDP
September 14
- China monthly economic data press conference
Anniversaries and awareness days
September 9
- North Korea: Day of the Foundation of the Republic
- World EV Day
- International FASD Day
- Pension Awareness Week (to September 13)
- Remember A Charity Week (to September 15)
- National Air Ambulance Awareness Week (to September 15)
- Fairtrade Fortnight (to September 22)
September 10
- One year ago: Storm Daniel hit Libya
- World Suicide Prevention Day
- Gibraltar National Day
September 11
- 23 years ago: 9/11 attacks
- Back British Farming Day
- UK Dairy Day
- National Day of Catalonia
September 12
- National Dementia Carers’ Day
- United Nations Day for South-South Co-operation
September 13
- Roald Dahl Day
- World Sepsis Day
September 14
- World First Aid Day
September 15
- Battle of Britain Day
- International Day of Democracy
- World Afro Day
The news diary is provided in association with Foresight News.
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