Britain’s car manufacturers face a devastating drop in sales of £588m if Donald Trump goes ahead with a threatened tariff on vehicle imports to America – the UK’s single largest transatlantic export, experts have warned.
The Treasury is understood by The i Paper to have conducted “extensive planning” for Washington imposing levies on key UK industries including the car sector amid rising concern that President Trump could impose a tariff of as high as 25 per cent on European and British vehicles as he pursues his “America first” strategy with increasing vigour.
Luxury British marques such as Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin, who all sell substantial numbers of cars to wealthy US customers, could be among those hardest hit by any decision from the White House to go after European motor manufacturers. Cars represent the biggest single export segment for UK exports to America, last year accounting for £8.3bn of sales, or about 100,000 vehicles.
If the industry takes a hit, it could increase supply chain costs, which ultimately means drivers will end up paying more for these cars. Any drop in sales and production could threaten thousands of jobs in manufacturing centres, such as the West Midlands.
Trump has repeatedly railed against what he sees as the absence of a level playing field in international trade, warning any company not manufacturing in the US that “you will have to pay a tariff” and singling out cars as a particular target. Earlier this week he threatened Canada with a 100 per cent automotive tariff.
Modelling carried out for The i Paper by Oxford Economics, a leading economic forecasting think-tank, suggests that UK vehicle exports would drop by more than 7 per cent if Trump adds cars to the burgeoning list of trade tariffs which this week saw him impose a blanket 25 per cent levy on steel and aluminium imports. The think-tank said it anticipated a tariff of 25 per cent – up from its current level of 2.5 per cent – to be imposed on European motor manufacturers.
If cars entering America were taxed at 25 per cent, the UK (-7.04 per cent) would be second only to Germany (-7.07 per cent) among European countries facing a sharp drop in export sales arising from a new tariff. Based on UK government trade figures, this would represent a potential loss of sales worth some £588m, while other estimates have put the hit to the UK car industry as high as £2bn.
Experts and industry sources said British manufacturers face an unpalatable set of repercussions from a transatlantic levy, ranging from reduced revenues to potential job losses to lower potential for investment as companies seek to manage the bumpy transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles (EVs).
Marco Forgione, director general of the Institute of Export and International Trade, which represents UK exporters, said: “The potential impact of President Trump’s automotive tariffs on the UK is significant, with a range of direct and indirect implications. UK automotive manufacturing and supply chains employ 800,000 people, [and] such a reduction in production would threaten these jobs, with particular regions such as West Midlands particularly badly hit.
“Tariffs would also cause instability and disruption to the highly integrated global supply chains, adding as much as 15 per cent to supply chain costs. All of which would lead to even higher prices for consumers, certainly making UK and EU manufactured cars much more expensive in the US.”
The International Chamber of Commerce (UK), which represents businesses around the world, said both UK exports and American motorists would end up paying a heavy price for increased tariffs. Chris Southworth, the organisation’s secretary general in Britain, said: “Three of the top five UK exports to the US would be hit by these tariffs. So there will absolutely be an increase in prices, [and] eventually, those prices and costs will be passed on to the consumer. If you buy a car for $20,000 (£16,000) in the US, you could well be paying $25,000 (£20,000) for that same car if it’s being imported.”
While the automotive sector remains Britain’s largest exporter of manufactured goods – contributing some £100bn a year to the UK economy – the industry has faced a rocky few years amid the challenges of Brexit and the pandemic. Last year, UK car production fell by 14 per cent to just under 780,000 vehicles, with exports falling by 15.5 per cent, according to industry body the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
But amid such gloom caused by factors ranging from factories retooling to produce EVs to patchy global demand, America has provided a rare bright spot – UK car exports to the US in 2024 rose by 38.5 per cent.
All of which makes the threat of US tariffs all the more troubling for motor industry executives.
America’s love of British cars
While UK-made cars ranging from BMW’s Mini to Nissans produced in Sunderland are exported to the States, America is a particularly lucrative market for Britain’s large array of high-end car brands. From McLaren and Aston Martin sports cars to the premium SUVs sold under the Land Rover and Range Rover badges, luxury British motors still hold a certain cachet from California to Manhattan.
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), Britain’s biggest car maker and the parent company for Land Rover and Range Rover, had sales of some £6.5bn in America in the year to March 2024, representing around 20 per cent of its total revenues.
It is a testimony to the interlinked complexity of car supply chains – with components crossing borders in Europe or North America often multiple times before final assembly – that JLR faces additional exposure to tariffs whether its vehicles are made in the UK or the EU.
The company’s popular Land Rover Defender model is made in Slovakia, meaning that those vehicles would be subject to any American tariffs imposed on the EU even though the owning company is British. Similarly, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, which is owned by Germany’s BMW, would be exempt from any levy imposed on EU car manufacturers because the venerated marque’s cars are made in the UK.
Rolls-Royce, which last year sold some 5,712 of its ultra de luxe cars, counts America as its single largest market, accounting for around a third of all sales. The company, whose vehicles start at £255,000, last month announced a £300m investment in its West Sussex manufacturing site to boost production of bespoke cars for ultra-wealthy clients.
Aston Martin, which in 2023 reported revenues of £453m from North America, secures about a quarter of its sales from the US and Canada, while Bentley sold some 3,848 cars to the Americas in 2023 – some 28 per cent of its total sales for that year.
Some experts argue that the higher prices commanded by UK brands could insulate manufacturers from the worst scourges of a US tariff. Felipe Munoz, an expert with Jato Dynamics, an automotive industry analysis company, said: “I don’t think tariffs are going to be such a big issue for these types of customers. These cars are already very expensive, so if it is another 25 per cent more then you are likely to still be able to afford it. If it was affordable before the tariffs, then it will be affordable after them.”
Others beg to differ. An industry source told The i Paper that even the wealthiest Americans may postpone or cancel planned purchases if confronted with a five-figure increase in the cost of a luxury British car.
The executive said: “Consumers at all levels are cost conscious. If the car which is the object of your desire suddenly costs another $50,000 (£40,000) then it won’t go unnoticed. A Hollywood movie star or a Wall Street trader with a bonus to spend might say to hell with it and pay. But it would be a miscalculation to think that would apply universally.”
Neither JLR nor Bentley responded to a request to comment about their view of any threat posed by tariffs.
Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, however, made it clear that the maelstrom of Trump levies would not blow it off its long-term strategic course. A spokesperson said the company had a “globally-balanced sales picture”, adding: “Just like our parent company BMW Group, Rolls-Royce does not make long-term strategic decisions based on political policies or incentives, because these can be of a more short-term nature.”
It is understood that Aston Martin executives believe the company – as an export-led high-end car manufacturer – may be “somewhat insulated” from the impact of tariffs, particularly if the US economy generates strong domestic demand under Mr Trump’s reforms. A source said: “Unlike volume car manufacturers which operate on tighter margins, we have an ability to absorb these costs through a combination of model mix – increasing exports of our most profitable models – and price rises.”
Elsewhere, however, pressure is growing on the Government to add the car sector to the list of industries it is willing to engage with the Trump Administration over as swingeing levies loom. Ministers this week pointedly held back from following an EU promise to retaliate against steel tariffs, saying the UK would not have a “knee-jerk reaction”.
It is understood by The i Paper that the Treasury has carried out “extensive preparations” to war game “any [tariff] scenario” including a levy on cars; although officials would wait to see the full details of any proposal from Washington before deciding what steps to take.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said he wanted to see measures maximise choice on both sides of the Atlantic. He said: “The automotive industry advocates for free and fair trade not just to avoid additional costs which dissuade buyers in all segments of the market but also to ensure consumers enjoy the widest possible choice of models.”
But some within the industry would like to see the Government go further, warning that both car manufacturers and the long tail of British companies which supply millions of vehicle components face a “double whammy” of having to recalibrate businesses to cope with tariffs while also meeting the zero-emissions vehicle mandate – the UK deadline for halting the sale of fossil fuel-only vehicles by 2035 which Labour is proposing to move back to its original deadline of 2030.
Stephen Morley, president of the Confederation of British Metalforming, whose 200 members supply components to the UK car industry, said a tariff on cars sold to the US market would “further strain our country’s already pressurised automotive [supply chain]”.
He added: “Labour must move out of the slow lane and take urgent action to prevent a ‘double whammy’ that could severely impact not only the car makers, but the entire downstream supply chain.”
