Rising prices of diesel, petrol and fertilizer in the country have upset farmers. Due to which farming is also becoming expensive. Policy Commission (NITI Aayog) Member Ramesh Chandra has also said that if the fertilizer (Fertilizers) And it is unreasonable to expect farming to become cheaper if diesel prices are going up. Farming prices will rise. However, Ramesh Chandra has made good forecasts for agriculture in this financial year as well. This year’s monsoon (Monsoon 2022Referring to the forecast made by the Meteorological Department for India, he said that if the monsoon returns to normal, India can expect a better year of agricultural growth of at least three per cent this year. Apart from this, he has also given reasons for high prices of goods.
Ramesh Chandra, a member of the policy commission, told BusinessLine that the normal monsoon is definitely good news for agriculture. However it depends on three aspects. The amount of rainfall in the monsoon, geographical distribution and time. The monsoon is expected to be normal as per the present forecast, so we can expect normal agricultural development.
Asked if the country could achieve the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth target of four per cent for agriculture, he said, “We have been seeing more than three per cent growth over the last few years.” Prices of agricultural products are still high, which is a positive factor for growth. Together these two factors could give a four per cent increase. If this target is not achieved, it could be 3-3.25 percent.
Fourth year of normal rainfall
This will be the fourth consecutive year of normal rainfall, said DK Pant, chief economist at Ratings & Research, India-based company of Fitch Group. If the distribution across the country during each month of the season is close to the normal pattern we have seen in the past, the growth of GVA in the agricultural sector could be 3-3.5 per cent. Pant said the prices of wheat and some other commodities are already high due to the Russia-Ukraine war and hoped that the nominal GVA would increase by 7-8 per cent. If prices continue to rise, the increase could be as high as 8 per cent.
Inflation will rise for a while
The member of the policy commission expressed concern over the high prices of commodities and said that the prices of agricultural commodities were moving towards a new balance. Inflation will continue for a few months and then it will come down. “When fertilizer, diesel prices are going up, you can’t expect agricultural prices not to go up,” he said.
According to the IMD forecast released on April 14, India will receive normal rainfall. Private weather forecaster Skymet has also forecast a normal monsoon this year at 98 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is considered ‘normal’ from a meteorological point of view.
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